Since the Detroit Red Wings cruised to their 11th Stanley Cup victory earlier in the summer, the landscape of the NHL has shifted. In some cases, the changes are subtle and will not much affect a team’s chances of securing the Ultimate Goal. In other cases, teams (and, in some cases, players) have made decisions that will affect the world for generations to come.
It is understandable, with the summer splendor that surrounds us, if fans cannot, by opportunity or decision, keep up with all of the changes that have taken place to shape the 2008-2009 NHL season. So, I will outline some of the most significant changes that have occurred since the beginning of the Free-Agent Season that started on July 1st.
Some teams are trying to get better. And while it may sound crazy, some teams are trying to get worse. Here is a look at two teams that have re-tooled their rosters and will deliver a noticeably different product on the ice. In one instance, the team should be less competitive. The other team completely turned around their fortunes in a matter of months.
Let’s start with the bad news:
Toronto Maple Leafs:
The suits on Bay Street have finally discovered what the average fan could have told you one season after 2004’s lockout: in order to win in The New NHL, you have to build internally. And with a new youth-based movement underfoot at the ACC, there is finally a light at the end of the tunnel. However, conventional wisdom tells us that the night is always darkest before the dawn.
There has been a changing of the guard and that is most evident by the conspicuous absence of Mats Sundin’s name on the Maple Leafs’ roster. Sure, he may return. But Toronto General Managers of yore would, by August 1st, have looked at the roster and realized that the latest edition of the Maple Leafs are going to score the fewest goals in the NHL by approximately 30. At this point, they would have panicked and made him an offer he can’t refuse. The difference between our-last-inept-general-manager-who-shall-remain-nameless (henceforth to be known by the abbreviation: OLIGMWSRN), and current GM Cliff Fletcher is this: OLIGMWSRN iced a bad hockey team that was trying to be good; Fletchy is going to ice a hockey team is simply too bad to compete. And this is very intentional. The only way that the Maple Leafs can be as hopeless as Fletcher needs them to be is if Mats Sundin is not their captain. He is too willful, too talented and he will strap the team on his back to almost make the playoffs yet again. Under Sundin’s watch, the Leafs cannot vie for last place in the NHL.
If you were to take a quick inventory of the staples of Leafs teams in the past few seasons, you would notice a common theme. They have been shipped out for players who are less expensive and less recognized than their predecessors.
Paul Maurice: Gone.
Andrew Raycroft: Gone.
Kyle Wellwood: Gone.
Darcy Tucker: Gone.
Mats Sundin: Probably gone.
Brian McCabe: Gone. (read the sports section on September 1st).
To have 6 of the most recognizable figures on one team not return for the next fall constitutes the largest remodeling project in recent memory that does not involve Ty Pennington (mercifully).
With Luke Schenn to be the face of the franchise in the near future, with another top prospect to be added in the 2009 Entry Draft, the Leafs are onto something that will be reminiscent of the formerly-hopeless, now-talent laden Chicago Blackhawks.
On the other side of the coin…
Tampa Bay Lightning:
I am terribly impressed with what has happened in Tampa Bay this summer. With a completely re-vamped roster and having Vinny Lecavalier locked up for the rest of his natural life with a new 39-year, $356 million contract* the Bolts are looking primed for a return to relevance in the Southeastern Division. They are easily the most improved team in the NHL and will look to make a run at things in the Eastern Conference this year.
Any time you solidify your veteran core with tested leaders like Mark Recchi (who still has not passed his ‘best-before date’) and Gary Roberts, you have done your team a service, regardless of the number of games they play. Roberts has a presence that teaches young players how to be a professional and his physical training is second to none (ok - second only to Rod Brind’amour). If the Lightning were smart, they would offer him a front-office job when his playing days are over, because few people understand hockey in the way that Roberts does.
They bolstered their goaltending with veteran Olaf Kolzig, who will be a good backup to the relatively green Mike Smith.
And as far as I’m concerned, they made off with one of the most underrated players in the entire NHL in Radim Vrbata. He is a solid two-way player who has a scorer’s touch and he isn’t afraid of physical hockey. And speaking of physical, they added Gary Roberts, Jr. - Ryan Malone. He really came into his own this past season in Pittsburgh, under Roberts’ tutelage. While the Lightning overpaid for Malone, it isn’t the end of the world, because if they didn’t someone else was going to.
And we cannot forget the addition of Steven Stamkos, who is definitely the real deal. Stamkos was the consensus #1 Draft Pick this past spring. The Lightning have learned from the debacle of making Lecavalier the youngest captain in the NHL by not putting Stamkos under too much pressure. He will thrive in a veteran-laden environment and will benefit from the experience of his teammates, who can teach him how to deal with the pressure.
However, there are several things that Tampa Bay may not have taken into consideration:
a. Barry Melrose has not coached in 13 seasons. When you take into consideration what the NHL looked like in 1995, it would be an understatement to say that the game has evolved dramatically. Some of you may not remember 1995. To jog your memory of what the world looked like, here are several significant events from the glorious perspective of hindsight:
i. Yahoo! and eBay were founded.
ii. Mississippi ratified the 13th Amendment. You know… the one that abolishes slavery. (Note: It became part of the Constitution in 1865. This was more of a gesture to slaves everywhere.)**
iii. Braveheart wins the Oscar for Best Picture.
iv. Christopher Reeve was paralyzed in a horse-riding accident.
v. O.J. Simpson’s gloves did not fit.
vi. The Toronto Maple Leafs were still in the Western Conference.
vii. Paul Kariya and Peter Forberg were rookies.
viii. Claude Lemieux won the Conn Smythe Trophy and the Devils won the Stanley Cup.
In an Austin Powers-esque video, I would love to help catch Mr. Melrose up on the events of the last 13 years***. This is a great idea for a reality TV show. While he has not been cryogenically frozen, I still imagine that he is wonderfully out of touch with 2008 – hilarity would ensue. Also, it might be helpful for Tampa’s new owners to mandate that Melrose re-grow his hockey-hair, as it is undoubtedly the source of his coaching powers.
b. They still play in the same division as Alexander Ovechkin, who will upgrade from Tropical Storm to a full-fledged Hurricane this season. This may have been a confusing reference, as he plays in the same division as the Carolina Hurricanes, you still understand the point – he is still getting better.
*The terms of this contract have been exaggerated. But it is a long time. And a lot of money.
** Poor taste? You decide!
***Austin Powers was not made until 1997. Barry Melrose probably will not understand the reference.
There are a lot of questions that remain to be answered in the next few weeks:
- Will NHL veterans Joe Sakic and Mats Sundin return to the teams that have been built around them for the past 13+ years? Or will they opt for permanent vacations in Burnaby and Bromma, respectively?
- Will Lauren Conrad and Audrina be able to overcome their Lo inflicted differences and fill the void left in their lives by the absence of Heidi?
- Did Rachel Hunter refuse to marry Jarret Stoll until he no longer lived in Edmonton? (We may never know the answer to this question, I am just painfully curious. And yes… I’m talking about THAT Rachel Hunter.)
- Will Martin Havlat make it out of the 1st period of his 1st game before he breaks a bone this season?
These are the questions that keep me awake at night. My counselor says I need to make real friends who aren’t on a TV show. Although, I do feel like I could be the winner on ‘Bromance’.
So, with the dust beginning to settle, the 2008-2009 NHL picture will begin to look clearer over the next few weeks. I will continue to break down who went where, why and what it all means!
Friday, August 15, 2008
Friday, August 8, 2008
Summertime!
For those of you who are waiting my next post with bated breath, I will offer you this: I will do a season-preview in September.
Meanwhile, I will be here.
See you in the fall!
Meanwhile, I will be here.
See you in the fall!
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
The Finals!
So, here we are, two games deep in the Stanley Cup Finals. The Pittsburgh Penguins have yet to score. Yes, the team that is allegedly the same group who has been compared to the Edmonton Oilers of the 1980's, has not yet scored a goal in the Stanley Cup Finals. It is unfortunate for Crosby & Co. that they seem to be more like the 1983 Oilers, Gretz & Mess' 1st Stanley Cup Finals, when they were swept by the New York Islanders.
These teams cannot be better matched. A quick look at the teams and the Match-up:
Finesse: Both teams are supremely talented. Between Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsuyk, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, if I wanted to start a franchise, I would take the duo of Crosby and Malkin; however, if I were in the business of winning a Stanley Cup Finals series, I would probably take Zetterberg and Datsuyk as their playoff experience is priceless. Having been around for several years longer than their young foes is invaluable and will give them a slight advantage. Age and experience is the only significant difference between the two tandems, and since the older couple are not yet Chris Chelios-old, their background gives them the advantage.
Edge, Red Wings.
Goaltending: Both starting goalies have had question marks placed next to their names when it comes to performing in the clutch. Both starting goalies have quieted their critics this post-season. At the beginning of this series, Osgood and Fleury were the only two goalies in the playoffs who have a Goals-Against Average of below 2.00, weighing in at 1.60 and 1.70, respectively. Marc-Andre Fleury is a young talent, like everybody else on his team; and like everybody else on the Red Wings, Osgood is older and rife with experience. He has already backstopped the Red Wings to one Stanley Cup and was on the bench for another. He is a journeyman who played in the AHL as recently as 2005, after being placed on waivers, traded to several teams and finally signed back by Detroit on a 1-year, $900,000 contract. He has been through the ringer and you can bet he will be ready for this opportunity. Like Zetterberg and Datsuyk, Osgood has tremendous experience and a history of showing mental-toughness when it is most needed; however, he is not old enough to be falling into disrepair, like Dominik Hasek.
Edge, Red Wings.
Grit: In a fairly evenly matched series, this is the first category where there is a noticeable difference. As I pointed out in the past, Gary Roberts is grit personified; however, Roberts is 42-years old and has not played much this post-season.
In the other corner is a team who will not be intimidated by tough play or Avery-like antics. Starting at the top of the list (if you're going by age) is Chris Chelios, who is one of the toughest players in the last 20 years. He is dirty and plays with a chip on his shoulder. Then there is Niklas Kronwall. He has emerged as a big-game player this season and has made some game-altering hits. He will continue to be an impact player. Pittsburgh is not a team that will be easy to push around; however, the Red Wings will try to do just that. If you run down the list of players on the Wings, they are simply built hardier and are tougher than the majority of the Pens. This list includes: Dan Cleary, Kris Draper, Chelios, Nicklas Lidstrom, Kirk Maltby, Tomas Holmstrom, and Darren McCarty.
Edge, Red Wings.
Defense: This requires less explanation. Nicklas Lidstrom - 5 Norris Trophies. Chris Chelios - 3 Norris Trophies. Kris Draper - 1 Selke Trophy (best defensive forward). Niklas Kronwall - 12 assists and many bone-jarring hits.
I do not need to add much more. Pittsburgh is inherently an offensive team who tends to play a run-and-gun style in order to outscore their opponents. They will not be able to do that with such an experienced defensive core. They will need to rely on puck-control, rather than nifty dangles to beat the Red Wings. While Pittsburgh isn't a bad defensive team, they do not have the pedigree that the Red Wings do.
Edge, Red Wings.
All of that being said, I would be shocked if this series does not go to 6 or 7 games.
In this year's edition, both teams skated through the first 3 series, losing a combined 6 games. There are a couple other reasons why The Finals have featured the surprising scoring-drought of the Pittsburgh Penguins.
1. Chris Osgood - Nobody has talked much about it, but this is the end-point of another Darren McCarty-esque return to glory. He has had extreme highs and lows in his career, but here he is, back in net for The Big Dance. After out-playing a red-hot Marty Turco in the Western Conference Semifinals, Osgood is putting on another show in the first couple games. As he continues to nurse the 3rd longest Stanley Cup Finals shut-out streak ever, the Red Wings have a lot of confidence in their goaltending and their defensive abilities. This will empower their offense to take greater risks in an effort to add to their already daunting lead.
2. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin - Both of these stars are responsible for the success of the Penguins in this offseason. They scored timely goals and stepped up when it was needed. It's safe to say that Game 3 will be the most important game of their young careers. For a team that was averaging 3.6 goals-per-game entering the Stanley Cup Finals, being shut-out in 2 straight games is almost unprecedented. These teams have the run of the ice when they have the power-play and they really need to get Pittsburgh's powerplay on the scoreboard in Game 3 if they have any chance of winning this series. Once they see a scuff in the armour, they may go into feeding-frenzy mode that they displayed against the Flyers in the last game of that series.
3. Home Ice Advantage - The advantage that a team has in its own building is immense, especially when their opponent is a young and nervous team in their first Stanley Cup Finals. Going into the white-out of Mellon Arena on Wednesday should soothe their nerves and they will be able to play the entertaining style of hockey that got them this far. Only once has a team not won the Stanley Cup after winning jumping out to a 2-0 lead, but if there ever was a team that can make history, it is these Pittsburgh Penguins. The Pens need to jump out to a fast lead at home, as Detroit is 11-1 when they score first while Pittsburgh is 10-0.
After 2 games, Detroit clearly has an overwhelming advantage, but the Penguins are the only team who is capable of mounting a comeback in the face of such daunting odds.
Edge, Red Wings. They win their 11th Stanley Cup in 6 games.
These teams cannot be better matched. A quick look at the teams and the Match-up:
Finesse: Both teams are supremely talented. Between Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsuyk, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, if I wanted to start a franchise, I would take the duo of Crosby and Malkin; however, if I were in the business of winning a Stanley Cup Finals series, I would probably take Zetterberg and Datsuyk as their playoff experience is priceless. Having been around for several years longer than their young foes is invaluable and will give them a slight advantage. Age and experience is the only significant difference between the two tandems, and since the older couple are not yet Chris Chelios-old, their background gives them the advantage.
Edge, Red Wings.
Goaltending: Both starting goalies have had question marks placed next to their names when it comes to performing in the clutch. Both starting goalies have quieted their critics this post-season. At the beginning of this series, Osgood and Fleury were the only two goalies in the playoffs who have a Goals-Against Average of below 2.00, weighing in at 1.60 and 1.70, respectively. Marc-Andre Fleury is a young talent, like everybody else on his team; and like everybody else on the Red Wings, Osgood is older and rife with experience. He has already backstopped the Red Wings to one Stanley Cup and was on the bench for another. He is a journeyman who played in the AHL as recently as 2005, after being placed on waivers, traded to several teams and finally signed back by Detroit on a 1-year, $900,000 contract. He has been through the ringer and you can bet he will be ready for this opportunity. Like Zetterberg and Datsuyk, Osgood has tremendous experience and a history of showing mental-toughness when it is most needed; however, he is not old enough to be falling into disrepair, like Dominik Hasek.
Edge, Red Wings.
Grit: In a fairly evenly matched series, this is the first category where there is a noticeable difference. As I pointed out in the past, Gary Roberts is grit personified; however, Roberts is 42-years old and has not played much this post-season.
In the other corner is a team who will not be intimidated by tough play or Avery-like antics. Starting at the top of the list (if you're going by age) is Chris Chelios, who is one of the toughest players in the last 20 years. He is dirty and plays with a chip on his shoulder. Then there is Niklas Kronwall. He has emerged as a big-game player this season and has made some game-altering hits. He will continue to be an impact player. Pittsburgh is not a team that will be easy to push around; however, the Red Wings will try to do just that. If you run down the list of players on the Wings, they are simply built hardier and are tougher than the majority of the Pens. This list includes: Dan Cleary, Kris Draper, Chelios, Nicklas Lidstrom, Kirk Maltby, Tomas Holmstrom, and Darren McCarty.
Edge, Red Wings.
Defense: This requires less explanation. Nicklas Lidstrom - 5 Norris Trophies. Chris Chelios - 3 Norris Trophies. Kris Draper - 1 Selke Trophy (best defensive forward). Niklas Kronwall - 12 assists and many bone-jarring hits.
I do not need to add much more. Pittsburgh is inherently an offensive team who tends to play a run-and-gun style in order to outscore their opponents. They will not be able to do that with such an experienced defensive core. They will need to rely on puck-control, rather than nifty dangles to beat the Red Wings. While Pittsburgh isn't a bad defensive team, they do not have the pedigree that the Red Wings do.
Edge, Red Wings.
All of that being said, I would be shocked if this series does not go to 6 or 7 games.
In this year's edition, both teams skated through the first 3 series, losing a combined 6 games. There are a couple other reasons why The Finals have featured the surprising scoring-drought of the Pittsburgh Penguins.
1. Chris Osgood - Nobody has talked much about it, but this is the end-point of another Darren McCarty-esque return to glory. He has had extreme highs and lows in his career, but here he is, back in net for The Big Dance. After out-playing a red-hot Marty Turco in the Western Conference Semifinals, Osgood is putting on another show in the first couple games. As he continues to nurse the 3rd longest Stanley Cup Finals shut-out streak ever, the Red Wings have a lot of confidence in their goaltending and their defensive abilities. This will empower their offense to take greater risks in an effort to add to their already daunting lead.
2. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin - Both of these stars are responsible for the success of the Penguins in this offseason. They scored timely goals and stepped up when it was needed. It's safe to say that Game 3 will be the most important game of their young careers. For a team that was averaging 3.6 goals-per-game entering the Stanley Cup Finals, being shut-out in 2 straight games is almost unprecedented. These teams have the run of the ice when they have the power-play and they really need to get Pittsburgh's powerplay on the scoreboard in Game 3 if they have any chance of winning this series. Once they see a scuff in the armour, they may go into feeding-frenzy mode that they displayed against the Flyers in the last game of that series.
3. Home Ice Advantage - The advantage that a team has in its own building is immense, especially when their opponent is a young and nervous team in their first Stanley Cup Finals. Going into the white-out of Mellon Arena on Wednesday should soothe their nerves and they will be able to play the entertaining style of hockey that got them this far. Only once has a team not won the Stanley Cup after winning jumping out to a 2-0 lead, but if there ever was a team that can make history, it is these Pittsburgh Penguins. The Pens need to jump out to a fast lead at home, as Detroit is 11-1 when they score first while Pittsburgh is 10-0.
After 2 games, Detroit clearly has an overwhelming advantage, but the Penguins are the only team who is capable of mounting a comeback in the face of such daunting odds.
Edge, Red Wings. They win their 11th Stanley Cup in 6 games.
Thursday, May 8, 2008
Western Conference Finals.
Working on a story for the newspaper. I'll get back to you.
Bottom Line: Red Wings in 7.
Bottom Line: Red Wings in 7.
Monday, May 5, 2008
Pennsylvania, Puberty, and PLAYOFFS!
In the Conference Semifinals, I went 2/4. Not the best, but if you’re in a Canadian public school, it’s still a passing mark. I’ll take a D-. Because it won’t happen again. I promise, Mom. HOWEVER, if you take my prediction of the Audrina-Lauren Conrad/Lo fallout into account, it bumps me up to 60%. Because the groundwork for that has taken place. Justin-Bobby has a haircut and the chickens are coming home to roost. I don't know what that means. Moving on...
I would also like to take this time to sit down with Sidney Crosby and have a chat. His nickname needs an upgrade in regards to some changes... that, er... have taken place of late:
Sid the Kid is not longer a kid. He's growing into a man. And when boys turn into men... their bodies begin to change. And when this change takes place, we need to do certain things to keep our bodies healthy and appealing. I know, Sid, this is uncomfortable for me too.
But one of these new things we need to do is shaving. Once our facial hair starts to grow, we need to take care of that so we don't look like we have a scraggly chocolate-milk mustache growing under our nose and on our necks. He has a terrible neckbeard (worse than my friend Byron's and that IS a statement). Perhaps Gillette and Sidney can come up with a promotion of 50% off Mach-12 razors for those who are just now going through puberty.
You agree? I'm sure glad we got that out of the way! I feel so much better, Sidney. So do your chances of, er, scoring.
ON TO THE PREDICTIONS!
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL –
(2) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (6) Philadelphia Flyers
The Battle of Pennsylvania. As much as I love historical hockey meetings, where a genuine dislike of the team on the opposite side of the ice boils just under the surface, the NHL needs to market its high-intensity meetings better. NCAA football has the Red River Shootout, The Civil War and the Iron Bowl. When compared to the pageantry and classic titles of those historic match-ups, the Battle of Alberta, the Battle of Ontario and the Battle of Pennsylvania seem wanting for effort. This will become more evident when we discuss the sun-baked hatred of the Battle of Florida and the players surf their way into the Battle of California in years to come.
Several short weeks ago, one wouldn’t expect much of this series; however, with the strength with which the Flyers played against the Canadiens, they have shown that they are capable of not only building a lead, but they show the killer-instinct to deal the fatal blow to a team’s Stanley Cup hopes. Montreal, on the other hand, could not do this against Boston as that series dragged to 7 games. Philadelphia’s success in this series depends largely on one man. If Martin Biron plays against Pittsburgh the way he did against Montreal, the Flyers will have a chance of winning this series. He has a .914 save percentage through 12 games in these playoffs and will need to continue at that level against a significantly more potent Penguins offense. In comparison, Marc-Andre Fleury boasts a .938 save percentage, but his Penguins faced a Senators crew who had no will to live and an inconsistent Rangers team.
The Penguins, much like the Canadiens and the Capitals, are a skill-based team whose playoff success depends largely on their ability to score goals. Unlike these teams, they have more significant scoring threats whom the Flyers will have to guard closely. Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby have demonstrated their ability to overcome playoff adversity with unanticipated maturity. They have, at times, shown their youth such as when they both lost their heads against the Rangers and wound up in the penalty box together – which may never happen again. But overall, they kept it together when the Penguins were down by large margins – when they were down 3-0 in Game 1, Crosby had 2 assists and Malkin scored 1 goal and 1 assist. These are the necessary contributions from a team’s most talented players when they are facing serious adversity. These contributions are the hallmarks of leadership.
The Flyers have had contributions from some unlikely candidates this spring. RJ Umberger has turned into a juggernaut who was a large contributing factor to the demise of the Habs. He scored 8 goals in 5 games against them, after scoring 13 goals in 74 games this season. The only possible explanation for his emergence is that in the playoffs, grit accounts for so much more than it does in the regular season. Often, the only way to score goals after April is by going to the net hard and taking your lumps – something that Umberger does better than the average bear. He will continue to be a factor in this series, along with the Usual Suspects of Danny Briere, Mike Richards, Jeff Carter and Joffrey Lupul. Philadelphia NEEDS their secondary players to keep scoring in order for them to stay in this series. If the scoring is left to Briere and Richards, the Flyers won't last long against the high-flying Penguins.
One thing Philadelphia needs to be aware of is the Pens' ability to blow a team out. If they continue to take penalties the way they did in the first two rounds, this will be a very short series. Pittsburgh has firepower that rarely find its way into the same Division, let alone the same team. The Flyers were the most suspended team in hockey during the regular season, and are the most penalized team in the playoffs. This might get some players looking over their shoulders, while others will be licking their chops. If they allow Crosby and Malkin to frequently have a man advantage, Biron will not likely be speaking to his teammates, as his save percentage will drop faster than booty in a Lil' John video.
The Penguins’ mental health will be a factor in this series as well. They have had it easy compared to the physical play that the Flyers are going to bring their way. If Pittsburgh lets it get to them – and we saw the Rangers get in the heads of Crosby and Malkin, especially in the game New York won – it could be their own downfall. They need to expect the Flyers to be a nasty, dirty, unpleasant team to play against if they are going to make it to The Finals. On the other hand, if the Flyers' grit leads them into penalty trouble, this could be an extremely short series because Pittsburgh will bury Philly if they get many multiple chances on the PP every game.
Bottom Line: When I see this Flyers team, I think of a rat. And not in the way that they have rabies and eat dog-poo. They find a way to survive and keep surviving against all odds. They are tough and have made the most of what their team can do. But Pittsburgh’s skill will be too much for Philadelphia to handle. The Penguins will be the last team standing in the Battle of Pennsylvania.
Pittsburgh in 6.
I would also like to take this time to sit down with Sidney Crosby and have a chat. His nickname needs an upgrade in regards to some changes... that, er... have taken place of late:
Sid the Kid is not longer a kid. He's growing into a man. And when boys turn into men... their bodies begin to change. And when this change takes place, we need to do certain things to keep our bodies healthy and appealing. I know, Sid, this is uncomfortable for me too.
But one of these new things we need to do is shaving. Once our facial hair starts to grow, we need to take care of that so we don't look like we have a scraggly chocolate-milk mustache growing under our nose and on our necks. He has a terrible neckbeard (worse than my friend Byron's and that IS a statement). Perhaps Gillette and Sidney can come up with a promotion of 50% off Mach-12 razors for those who are just now going through puberty.
You agree? I'm sure glad we got that out of the way! I feel so much better, Sidney. So do your chances of, er, scoring.
ON TO THE PREDICTIONS!
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL –
(2) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (6) Philadelphia Flyers
The Battle of Pennsylvania. As much as I love historical hockey meetings, where a genuine dislike of the team on the opposite side of the ice boils just under the surface, the NHL needs to market its high-intensity meetings better. NCAA football has the Red River Shootout, The Civil War and the Iron Bowl. When compared to the pageantry and classic titles of those historic match-ups, the Battle of Alberta, the Battle of Ontario and the Battle of Pennsylvania seem wanting for effort. This will become more evident when we discuss the sun-baked hatred of the Battle of Florida and the players surf their way into the Battle of California in years to come.
Several short weeks ago, one wouldn’t expect much of this series; however, with the strength with which the Flyers played against the Canadiens, they have shown that they are capable of not only building a lead, but they show the killer-instinct to deal the fatal blow to a team’s Stanley Cup hopes. Montreal, on the other hand, could not do this against Boston as that series dragged to 7 games. Philadelphia’s success in this series depends largely on one man. If Martin Biron plays against Pittsburgh the way he did against Montreal, the Flyers will have a chance of winning this series. He has a .914 save percentage through 12 games in these playoffs and will need to continue at that level against a significantly more potent Penguins offense. In comparison, Marc-Andre Fleury boasts a .938 save percentage, but his Penguins faced a Senators crew who had no will to live and an inconsistent Rangers team.
The Penguins, much like the Canadiens and the Capitals, are a skill-based team whose playoff success depends largely on their ability to score goals. Unlike these teams, they have more significant scoring threats whom the Flyers will have to guard closely. Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby have demonstrated their ability to overcome playoff adversity with unanticipated maturity. They have, at times, shown their youth such as when they both lost their heads against the Rangers and wound up in the penalty box together – which may never happen again. But overall, they kept it together when the Penguins were down by large margins – when they were down 3-0 in Game 1, Crosby had 2 assists and Malkin scored 1 goal and 1 assist. These are the necessary contributions from a team’s most talented players when they are facing serious adversity. These contributions are the hallmarks of leadership.
The Flyers have had contributions from some unlikely candidates this spring. RJ Umberger has turned into a juggernaut who was a large contributing factor to the demise of the Habs. He scored 8 goals in 5 games against them, after scoring 13 goals in 74 games this season. The only possible explanation for his emergence is that in the playoffs, grit accounts for so much more than it does in the regular season. Often, the only way to score goals after April is by going to the net hard and taking your lumps – something that Umberger does better than the average bear. He will continue to be a factor in this series, along with the Usual Suspects of Danny Briere, Mike Richards, Jeff Carter and Joffrey Lupul. Philadelphia NEEDS their secondary players to keep scoring in order for them to stay in this series. If the scoring is left to Briere and Richards, the Flyers won't last long against the high-flying Penguins.
One thing Philadelphia needs to be aware of is the Pens' ability to blow a team out. If they continue to take penalties the way they did in the first two rounds, this will be a very short series. Pittsburgh has firepower that rarely find its way into the same Division, let alone the same team. The Flyers were the most suspended team in hockey during the regular season, and are the most penalized team in the playoffs. This might get some players looking over their shoulders, while others will be licking their chops. If they allow Crosby and Malkin to frequently have a man advantage, Biron will not likely be speaking to his teammates, as his save percentage will drop faster than booty in a Lil' John video.
The Penguins’ mental health will be a factor in this series as well. They have had it easy compared to the physical play that the Flyers are going to bring their way. If Pittsburgh lets it get to them – and we saw the Rangers get in the heads of Crosby and Malkin, especially in the game New York won – it could be their own downfall. They need to expect the Flyers to be a nasty, dirty, unpleasant team to play against if they are going to make it to The Finals. On the other hand, if the Flyers' grit leads them into penalty trouble, this could be an extremely short series because Pittsburgh will bury Philly if they get many multiple chances on the PP every game.
Bottom Line: When I see this Flyers team, I think of a rat. And not in the way that they have rabies and eat dog-poo. They find a way to survive and keep surviving against all odds. They are tough and have made the most of what their team can do. But Pittsburgh’s skill will be too much for Philadelphia to handle. The Penguins will be the last team standing in the Battle of Pennsylvania.
Pittsburgh in 6.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Round 2, Baby!
The Promised Land Preview:
So, to clarify why I only picked the Eastern conference in the 1st round is because I had a deadline and couldn't get the blog up in time before the games started. Instead of knowing what happened in Game 1, which would sway my picks even if I didn't intend them to, I just decided to hold off until round 2. So, I did pretty well, going 3/4 and picking the Rangers in the correct number of games. Not bad for a first timer!
Here comes the Second Round. We’ve got some good stuff for you. Let’s do it.
Unrelated to anything: I don't know if any of you watch The Hills. Probably not. At any rate, I do. And I was enjoying The Hills last week and noticed Spencer’s awesome playoff beard. Later that evening, I saw Spencer skating down the ice but he was wearing a Phil Kessel jersey. As it turns out, Spence wasn’t a late-season addition to the Bruins, but it was, in fact, Phil Kessel.
While I'm predicting things, I'll predict that Audrina doesn't move in with LC and Lo, being alienated by their obnoxious friendship and evident hatred for Justin Bobby. Even if she does initially move into their house, it won't last. You heard it here first!
Eastern Conference Semifinals –
(1) Montreal Canadiens vs. (6) Philadelphia Flyers
Montreal had a much tougher fight on their hands in the first round than anybody expected, including the Boston Bruins. Their lack of killer instinct will be corrected in the second round, so if they jump to a quick lead, they will be able to finish what they have started.
This series is a special-teams matchup, as it features the top two regular-season powerplays (Canadiens – 24.2%; Flyers – 21.8%); however, Montreal’s powerplay dried up (9%) in parts of their first series against the Bruins. The opposite happened with the Flyers, as Daniel Briere led the team with 6 goals and 5 assists, with much of his success coming on the P.P. against the Capitals. On the other hand, in the absence of their powerplay, Les Habitants tightened up their defensive zone coverage and killed 90% of their penalties.
As Jeff Carter has pointed out, Montreal and Washington are similar teams, with a lot of European players relying on skill and puck possession to give them an advantage. However, one main difference between the Habs and the Capitals are that Montreal plays much better as a team and has more veteran leadership. Not to mention that Washington’s starting goalie is the same man that Montreal decided was going to take a backseat role to the Goalie of the Future, Carey Price.
If this series becomes an offensive battle, much like the last series that the Flyers survived, Montreal will have an advantage because they are capable of shutting the door defensively and stifling their opponents’ offenses. Not to mention that while Cristobal Huet is a Hasek-style reaction goalie, Price is very cool under pressure and to make many of his best saves, he is positioned perfectly to be waiting for the puck by the time it gets to him. As he did struggle at times in the first round, the Canadiens will need their veterans to step up, as Saku Koivu and Alex Kovalev both did against the Bruins. Like Price, Martin Biron looked very strong at times, while letting some weak goals past him. Unlike Price, Biron did not show the ability to take control and steal a game for his team.
Bottom Line: While both demonstrated an ability to put the puck in the net in the Quarter-Finals, only one of these teams was capable of shutting down an offense. Montreal’s defense and penalty kill will be the deal breaker in this series, and the Habs will squander fewer chances against the most penalized team in the playoffs (35 penalties). Montreal sneaks out the back door en route to their 1st conference finals since 1993.
Canadiens in 6.
(2) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) New York Rangers
I can’t wait for this series. Somehow, Pittsburgh is going to have to address Super Pest Sean Avery who single-handedly distracted future Hall of Famer Martin Brodeur from his job of stopping pucks and forced him to focus on ways to kill Avery. It was like watching the Coyote and the Roadrunner, with Avery inventing new and creative ways to get an unfair advantage that aren’t technically outside the rules. The Penguins are going to have to out-pest The Pest this series. Jarkko Ruutu will be used as a tool to try to distract Avery – Ruutu will have extra assistance from Georges Laraque and Gary Roberts in deterring Avery from taking runs at more talented players. If those three can engage Avery and bother him enough to prevent him from getting to Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, this series will take a turn other than the one I’m anticipating.
Crosby and Malkin have the first real playoff test of their careers. I generally give players an exemption from blame the first time they experience post-season hockey, because it is such a different game than the regular season. That was last year. This year, The Young Guns went untested against the predictably weak Ottawa Senators. The fact that they simply did not need to try in the first round will work against them. The extra week may work against them, as they comfortably awaited their opponents, while the Rangers duked it out another couple games. The Penguins are going to run into a bit of a wall in the first two games against the Rangers, who survived a war against the Devils. As usual, expect big things from Gary Roberts. One can never underestimate Pittsburgh’s pure talent, but this is the playoffs. It’s where talent needs to meet grit to win a championship.
The Rangers won this season series 5-3, Henrik Lundqvist is playing well and the Rangers are flying. Jaromir Jagr, Scott Gomez and Chris Drury are going to keep rolling. Also, the Rangers know how to win. They have 6.5 Stanley Cups among them (Jason Strudwick is a cousin of Scott and Rob Neidermayer, so that association gives him at least a half-Stanley Cup), compared to Pittsburgh’s 3 (Gary Roberts – 1 – and Darryl Sydor – 2 – are the only two who have tasted victory from Stanley’s Mug). Pittsburgh is going to win one (two, three or four) in the upcoming seasons (read: starting next year), but they might be too green to get there this season.
Bottom Line: Remember that Karma I was talking about last round? It’s going to bite the Penguins here, who took the easy way out in the 1st round, but will be unprepared because of it. Also, Avery isn’t going anywhere. Crosby has a habit of letting players get under his skin, and few people are as obnoxious as Avery.
Rangers in 6.
Western Conference Semifinals –
(1) Detroit Red Wings vs. (6) Colorado Avalanche
These are two perennial Western Conferences powerhouse in a classic match-up. They know each other very well and there is not much love between them. At first glance, they are similarly built teams with longstanding histories of success. Both have prominent veterans (Colorado – Joe Sakic, Adam Foote, Peter Forsberg; Detroit – Chris Chelios, Nicklas Lidstrom, Tomas Holmstrom) who have all won Stanley Cups. Both feature prominent young offensive talents; however this is where Detroit has the edge. Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsuyk are two of the best finesse players in the league who have silky hands and have hit their playoff pace after having trouble getting started early in their careers. Paul Stastny is in the midst of his own playoff-scoring slump and he needs to figure this out. If he doesn’t get his offensive output started, this is going to be a short series, as Colorado needs his added firepower to keep up with Detroit.
Colorado has the advantage in net, as Jose Theodore has returned to his 2001-02 form when he won the Vezina and Hart Trophies. Theodore shut down the Wild in the Quarter-Finals, and he did not waver. Detroit has long-standing goaltending issues, as they insist on pursuing the Stanley Cup with goaltending that is often the weakest part of their formidable teams. Dominik Hasek looked very weak for the entire First Round and he should back-up Osgood this series, who was much better than Hasek. However, both are a step down from Theodore.
As I have pointed out before, grit mixed with talent is the key to the playoffs. And Ryan Smyth is the right amount of that combination. However, the Avs are older and slightly less talented than the Red Wings. When you consider that Sakic missed 38 games this season, Ryan Smyth missed 27, Adam Foote missed 70, and Peter Forsberg only played in 9 games, you have to be concerned about their aging core’s health in a long and physical series.
Bottom Line: Despite the Avalanche’s strong defense and goaltending, they just don’t have the fire-power to keep up with the Red Wings. Lidstrom and Chelios should be deterrent enough to slow down Colorado’s occasionally fiery offense.
Red Wings in 6.
(2) San Jose Sharks vs. (5) Dallas Stars
This series comes down to match-ups and depth. The winner of this series is going to be the eventual Western Conference representative in the finals. So, let’s just jump right in! The water is great. There aren’t any sharks in it. I promise.
The Sharks did well by dispatching Jarome Iginla in the 1st round, as that is never an easy task. Yes, I’m aware he has 19 other guys who infrequently show up on the ice along with him, but none that were worth mentioning. Joe Thornton proved that he does have a pulse in April and that he is aware there are more than 82 games to be played in the year. He played very well, getting 7 points (2 goals, 5 assists) in 6 games; however, he did disappear for periods at a time and occasionally reminded the Bruins why they sent him to the West Coast in exchange for Marco Sturm (there were two other guys involved, but neither of them play for the Bruins anymore). He received help from Ryane Clowe (yes I spelled that right… I don’t know… ask his parents) who leads the team with 8 points and Patrick Marleau turned out some impressive performances. It took a few guys stepping up to beat the Flames. It’s going to take a heck of a lot more to beat the Stars.
Unlike San Jose, the Stars have players coming out of the woodwork for no apparent reason to lead the team to new heights. Stephane Robidas is a journeyman who jumped to life in the 1st round. He had 26 points in the regular season, but is averaging 1 point per game in the playoffs. Mike Ribeiro is following his break-out season by adding 8 points in 6 games – which is the same number of points he had in 24 playoff games prior to this season. Stu Barnes is playing like he’s Claude Lemieux. Then you get to Mike Modano and Brad Richards – Richards has a Conn Smythe trophy to add to his and Modano’s rings. Dallas seemed genuinely unconcerned about home ice advantage last round, winning the first two games in Anaheim. Throw the best goalie from the 1st round in net and you are sitting pretty.
Bottom Line: When you consider Thornton’s history of disappearing in the face of adversity and Brad Richards’ history of doing the exact opposite, smart money says Richards steps it up. Also, San Jose looked shaky the entire 1st round. They were inconsistent, while the Stars showed up each game and twice were beat by a good team.
Stars in 7.
So, to clarify why I only picked the Eastern conference in the 1st round is because I had a deadline and couldn't get the blog up in time before the games started. Instead of knowing what happened in Game 1, which would sway my picks even if I didn't intend them to, I just decided to hold off until round 2. So, I did pretty well, going 3/4 and picking the Rangers in the correct number of games. Not bad for a first timer!
Here comes the Second Round. We’ve got some good stuff for you. Let’s do it.
Unrelated to anything: I don't know if any of you watch The Hills. Probably not. At any rate, I do. And I was enjoying The Hills last week and noticed Spencer’s awesome playoff beard. Later that evening, I saw Spencer skating down the ice but he was wearing a Phil Kessel jersey. As it turns out, Spence wasn’t a late-season addition to the Bruins, but it was, in fact, Phil Kessel.
While I'm predicting things, I'll predict that Audrina doesn't move in with LC and Lo, being alienated by their obnoxious friendship and evident hatred for Justin Bobby. Even if she does initially move into their house, it won't last. You heard it here first!
Eastern Conference Semifinals –
(1) Montreal Canadiens vs. (6) Philadelphia Flyers
Montreal had a much tougher fight on their hands in the first round than anybody expected, including the Boston Bruins. Their lack of killer instinct will be corrected in the second round, so if they jump to a quick lead, they will be able to finish what they have started.
This series is a special-teams matchup, as it features the top two regular-season powerplays (Canadiens – 24.2%; Flyers – 21.8%); however, Montreal’s powerplay dried up (9%) in parts of their first series against the Bruins. The opposite happened with the Flyers, as Daniel Briere led the team with 6 goals and 5 assists, with much of his success coming on the P.P. against the Capitals. On the other hand, in the absence of their powerplay, Les Habitants tightened up their defensive zone coverage and killed 90% of their penalties.
As Jeff Carter has pointed out, Montreal and Washington are similar teams, with a lot of European players relying on skill and puck possession to give them an advantage. However, one main difference between the Habs and the Capitals are that Montreal plays much better as a team and has more veteran leadership. Not to mention that Washington’s starting goalie is the same man that Montreal decided was going to take a backseat role to the Goalie of the Future, Carey Price.
If this series becomes an offensive battle, much like the last series that the Flyers survived, Montreal will have an advantage because they are capable of shutting the door defensively and stifling their opponents’ offenses. Not to mention that while Cristobal Huet is a Hasek-style reaction goalie, Price is very cool under pressure and to make many of his best saves, he is positioned perfectly to be waiting for the puck by the time it gets to him. As he did struggle at times in the first round, the Canadiens will need their veterans to step up, as Saku Koivu and Alex Kovalev both did against the Bruins. Like Price, Martin Biron looked very strong at times, while letting some weak goals past him. Unlike Price, Biron did not show the ability to take control and steal a game for his team.
Bottom Line: While both demonstrated an ability to put the puck in the net in the Quarter-Finals, only one of these teams was capable of shutting down an offense. Montreal’s defense and penalty kill will be the deal breaker in this series, and the Habs will squander fewer chances against the most penalized team in the playoffs (35 penalties). Montreal sneaks out the back door en route to their 1st conference finals since 1993.
Canadiens in 6.
(2) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) New York Rangers
I can’t wait for this series. Somehow, Pittsburgh is going to have to address Super Pest Sean Avery who single-handedly distracted future Hall of Famer Martin Brodeur from his job of stopping pucks and forced him to focus on ways to kill Avery. It was like watching the Coyote and the Roadrunner, with Avery inventing new and creative ways to get an unfair advantage that aren’t technically outside the rules. The Penguins are going to have to out-pest The Pest this series. Jarkko Ruutu will be used as a tool to try to distract Avery – Ruutu will have extra assistance from Georges Laraque and Gary Roberts in deterring Avery from taking runs at more talented players. If those three can engage Avery and bother him enough to prevent him from getting to Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, this series will take a turn other than the one I’m anticipating.
Crosby and Malkin have the first real playoff test of their careers. I generally give players an exemption from blame the first time they experience post-season hockey, because it is such a different game than the regular season. That was last year. This year, The Young Guns went untested against the predictably weak Ottawa Senators. The fact that they simply did not need to try in the first round will work against them. The extra week may work against them, as they comfortably awaited their opponents, while the Rangers duked it out another couple games. The Penguins are going to run into a bit of a wall in the first two games against the Rangers, who survived a war against the Devils. As usual, expect big things from Gary Roberts. One can never underestimate Pittsburgh’s pure talent, but this is the playoffs. It’s where talent needs to meet grit to win a championship.
The Rangers won this season series 5-3, Henrik Lundqvist is playing well and the Rangers are flying. Jaromir Jagr, Scott Gomez and Chris Drury are going to keep rolling. Also, the Rangers know how to win. They have 6.5 Stanley Cups among them (Jason Strudwick is a cousin of Scott and Rob Neidermayer, so that association gives him at least a half-Stanley Cup), compared to Pittsburgh’s 3 (Gary Roberts – 1 – and Darryl Sydor – 2 – are the only two who have tasted victory from Stanley’s Mug). Pittsburgh is going to win one (two, three or four) in the upcoming seasons (read: starting next year), but they might be too green to get there this season.
Bottom Line: Remember that Karma I was talking about last round? It’s going to bite the Penguins here, who took the easy way out in the 1st round, but will be unprepared because of it. Also, Avery isn’t going anywhere. Crosby has a habit of letting players get under his skin, and few people are as obnoxious as Avery.
Rangers in 6.
Western Conference Semifinals –
(1) Detroit Red Wings vs. (6) Colorado Avalanche
These are two perennial Western Conferences powerhouse in a classic match-up. They know each other very well and there is not much love between them. At first glance, they are similarly built teams with longstanding histories of success. Both have prominent veterans (Colorado – Joe Sakic, Adam Foote, Peter Forsberg; Detroit – Chris Chelios, Nicklas Lidstrom, Tomas Holmstrom) who have all won Stanley Cups. Both feature prominent young offensive talents; however this is where Detroit has the edge. Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsuyk are two of the best finesse players in the league who have silky hands and have hit their playoff pace after having trouble getting started early in their careers. Paul Stastny is in the midst of his own playoff-scoring slump and he needs to figure this out. If he doesn’t get his offensive output started, this is going to be a short series, as Colorado needs his added firepower to keep up with Detroit.
Colorado has the advantage in net, as Jose Theodore has returned to his 2001-02 form when he won the Vezina and Hart Trophies. Theodore shut down the Wild in the Quarter-Finals, and he did not waver. Detroit has long-standing goaltending issues, as they insist on pursuing the Stanley Cup with goaltending that is often the weakest part of their formidable teams. Dominik Hasek looked very weak for the entire First Round and he should back-up Osgood this series, who was much better than Hasek. However, both are a step down from Theodore.
As I have pointed out before, grit mixed with talent is the key to the playoffs. And Ryan Smyth is the right amount of that combination. However, the Avs are older and slightly less talented than the Red Wings. When you consider that Sakic missed 38 games this season, Ryan Smyth missed 27, Adam Foote missed 70, and Peter Forsberg only played in 9 games, you have to be concerned about their aging core’s health in a long and physical series.
Bottom Line: Despite the Avalanche’s strong defense and goaltending, they just don’t have the fire-power to keep up with the Red Wings. Lidstrom and Chelios should be deterrent enough to slow down Colorado’s occasionally fiery offense.
Red Wings in 6.
(2) San Jose Sharks vs. (5) Dallas Stars
This series comes down to match-ups and depth. The winner of this series is going to be the eventual Western Conference representative in the finals. So, let’s just jump right in! The water is great. There aren’t any sharks in it. I promise.
The Sharks did well by dispatching Jarome Iginla in the 1st round, as that is never an easy task. Yes, I’m aware he has 19 other guys who infrequently show up on the ice along with him, but none that were worth mentioning. Joe Thornton proved that he does have a pulse in April and that he is aware there are more than 82 games to be played in the year. He played very well, getting 7 points (2 goals, 5 assists) in 6 games; however, he did disappear for periods at a time and occasionally reminded the Bruins why they sent him to the West Coast in exchange for Marco Sturm (there were two other guys involved, but neither of them play for the Bruins anymore). He received help from Ryane Clowe (yes I spelled that right… I don’t know… ask his parents) who leads the team with 8 points and Patrick Marleau turned out some impressive performances. It took a few guys stepping up to beat the Flames. It’s going to take a heck of a lot more to beat the Stars.
Unlike San Jose, the Stars have players coming out of the woodwork for no apparent reason to lead the team to new heights. Stephane Robidas is a journeyman who jumped to life in the 1st round. He had 26 points in the regular season, but is averaging 1 point per game in the playoffs. Mike Ribeiro is following his break-out season by adding 8 points in 6 games – which is the same number of points he had in 24 playoff games prior to this season. Stu Barnes is playing like he’s Claude Lemieux. Then you get to Mike Modano and Brad Richards – Richards has a Conn Smythe trophy to add to his and Modano’s rings. Dallas seemed genuinely unconcerned about home ice advantage last round, winning the first two games in Anaheim. Throw the best goalie from the 1st round in net and you are sitting pretty.
Bottom Line: When you consider Thornton’s history of disappearing in the face of adversity and Brad Richards’ history of doing the exact opposite, smart money says Richards steps it up. Also, San Jose looked shaky the entire 1st round. They were inconsistent, while the Stars showed up each game and twice were beat by a good team.
Stars in 7.
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
2008 Stanley Cup Playoff Preview
The Promised Land Preview, 2008:
Sixteen teams had some good things going for them this season. Fourteen teams were less organized and could not put together a strong enough campaign to last this long. However, in the playoffs, all is not as it appears. Some teams barely survived the regular season, only to find themselves in even bigger trouble. These teams will find themselves on the golf course faster than John Daly after a plate of Hooters wings and 3 pitchers of beer.
Other teams are built for speed and have hit the playoffs with an admirable stride. And if there is one thing that we can learn from the 2003-2008 Detroit Red Wings – the winner of the President’s Trophy is not necessarily the best playoff team.
I don’t know about you, but the anticipation is killing me. So let’s get to it.
Eastern Conference:
(1) Montreal Canadiens vs. (8) Boston Bruins –
I’m not going to beat around the bush on this one. The reasons that the Canadiens are going to sweep the Bruins in this series are twofold: numbers and Destiny. Yes. Destiny. With a capital ‘D’.
I’m as big a believer that statistics are for baseball and mathematicians as the next guy; however, Montreal’s numbers against the B’s are so overwhelming that one can’t help but notice. The 2007-2008 season series was a rout for Montreal. Any time one team goes 8-0 against another in the regular season, it’s not a fluke or an accident. That team is simply better. If you look back in playoff history, teams with experience and leadership tend to go far, while teams that lack it do not. This is another reason why Boston comes up short. Boston is a young team with little playoff experience. In fact, two of their most important players – Marc Savard and goalie Tim Thomas – come into these playoffs with 0 post-season appearances between them.
It is at this point that the astute among you will point out, “Carey Price has even less experience than Tim Thomas.” This is true. But it is also where Destiny comes in. Carey Price is the most highly touted Canadiens goalies in the past 20 years. Since Patrick Roy came to town, no goaltending prospect has received as much hype in Montreal. And I will ask those of you who are older than myself to answer this question: what happened in Patrick Roy’s rookie season? (Seriously, I don’t know. I was 2.) No, he didn’t win the Calder Trophy (like Carey Price is going to). He just won the Stanley Cup. And the Conn Smythe Trophy.
The skeptic will say: OK, big deal. He’s a Hall of Famer who has hearing problems based on where he keeps his Stanley Cup rings.
Then I would tell you about Ken Dryden. He was a university goalie for Cornell before literacy was en vogue for hockey players. He was called up to the Habs with 6 games remaining in the regular season and went 6-0. They faced a rag-tag bunch of chumps called the Bruins. They had nobody of note on their team (Bobby Orr, Phil Esposito, Wayne Cashman, Johnny Bucyk). They barely scraped their way into the playoffs (league records for most goals by a team (399), most wins in the regular season (57) and most points with 121). Needless to say, they upset the Bruins in 7, won the Stanley Cup and Ken Dryden won the Conn Smythe Trophy.
As for Price himself, he won the Calder Cup as a 19-year old rookie in the AHL last season. He is unflappable and he will not be rattled, nor will he miss a step in these playoffs. It will help him that he will be eased into the post-season with a safe matchup against the Bruins.
Bottom line: Habs take this one in 4.
(2) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (7) Ottawa Senators –
Unlike everybody else in the entire civilized world, I am not completely sold on the Crosby-Malkin led juggernaut that is the 2007-08 Pittsburgh Penguins. However, I am even less sold on the flop that is the 2007-08 Ottawa Senators.
Let’s discuss the Penguins’ before I point out Ottawa’s issues* (*note: I will need to devote an entire article to that topic). Sure, there is a lot to love about 20-year old phenom Sidney Crosby and his compatriots. Crosby is ultra-competitive and he has the skills to back up his work ethic. Malkin has used Crosby’s absence to prove that he is more than simply a 2nd fiddle and can be a star in his own right. One can never underestimate playoff war-horse Gary Roberts. With the Cup on the line, nobody has less regard for their own physical safety than Roberts. He is grit personified.
On the other hand, I would like to see more grit out of Crosby and was unimpressed by their flat effort in their last regular season game against the Flyers. Hockey karma will catch up to them - but not just yet.
They face the lowly Senators who required 44 games to get their last 15 wins of the season. For a comparison, they started off the season red-hot and won 15 of their first 17. Captain Daniel Alfredsson will probably be gone for the entire series, courtesy of Toronto’s Mark Bell, as will Mike Fisher. That leaves journeyman Martin Lapointe to fill in on the top line. Ottawa limped out of the regular season and they will limp out of this series.
Bottom line: The punch-drunk Sens will buckle at the first sign of adversity. Penguins in 6.
(3) Washington Capitals vs. (6) Philadelphia Flyers –
If you were painting a portrait of early April’s landscape from October’s point of view, there would be no Capitals or Flyers in the scene. Both have rebounded from tough years admirably and find themselves on the inside looking out. These teams are the two most improved in the league this year, with the Flyers improving on their 56 point performance, as they finished with 95 points – a 30 point improvement. The Capitals improved on their last year’s finish by 24 points.
As recently as American Thanksgiving (November 23, for us Canadians), the Caps were in last place in the NHL; however, nobody in the Eastern Conference is currently as hot, as they won 11 of 12 entering the playoffs. They have already proven that they can win when they need to, as they ousted Carolina from the Southeast Division lead in the last game of the season to clinch their playoff berth.
However, 15 Capitals who will see action this series have never played a game in the playoffs. Compare this with 9 unseasoned Flyers and we have a extremely young series. Historical precedents have no play in this series, as the last time they met in the playoffs, Ron Hextall scored for the Flyers (1989). Goaltending seems comparable, as the Capitals have Cristobal Huet and the Flyers will rely on Martin Biron. There is one X Factor in this series.
His name is Alexander Ovechkin. There is only 1 team in the league that would have an answer for Ovechkin and his crew of Russian All-Stars. And that team is not the Flyers. Along with Sergei Federov, Alexander Semin and Nickolas Backstrom (Swedish), the Capitals have the goal-scoring prowess to blow the doors of this series open. Philadelphia is tougher, but Ovechkin has never shied away from a physical style of play.
Bottom line: Barring more Philadelphia goonery, Washington takes this series in 7.
(4) New Jersey Devils vs. (5) New York Rangers
This series is going to be a good one. They are very evenly matched and their season came down to the last game against each other. The bad blood spilled over in a spirited affair that included Jaromir Jagr mugging several Devils. Both have veteran leadership, both are playoff tested and both have fantastic goaltending. The Devils have had more playoff success recently than the Rangers; however, these Rangers have been a major disappointment since GM Glen Sather put the finishing touches on the team’s current edition with the addition of Scott Gomez and Chris Drury. Drury has, as we have all heard numerous times, is a winner at every level: from the 1989 Little League World Series all the way to the 2001 Stanley Cup with the Colorado Avalanche. And you can never underestimate Jaromir Jagr deciding to be the best Jagr he can be, with a newly revised workout schedule in preparation for the playoffs. He is aging and realizes it. This team has the right mix of young talent and veteran leadership to do something special in 2008.
This year represents a passing of the guard from the perennial dominance of the Martin Brodeur-led Devils to the Atlantic Division’s future of Henrik Lundqvist.
Bottom line: Rangers win in 6.
Sixteen teams had some good things going for them this season. Fourteen teams were less organized and could not put together a strong enough campaign to last this long. However, in the playoffs, all is not as it appears. Some teams barely survived the regular season, only to find themselves in even bigger trouble. These teams will find themselves on the golf course faster than John Daly after a plate of Hooters wings and 3 pitchers of beer.
Other teams are built for speed and have hit the playoffs with an admirable stride. And if there is one thing that we can learn from the 2003-2008 Detroit Red Wings – the winner of the President’s Trophy is not necessarily the best playoff team.
I don’t know about you, but the anticipation is killing me. So let’s get to it.
Eastern Conference:
(1) Montreal Canadiens vs. (8) Boston Bruins –
I’m not going to beat around the bush on this one. The reasons that the Canadiens are going to sweep the Bruins in this series are twofold: numbers and Destiny. Yes. Destiny. With a capital ‘D’.
I’m as big a believer that statistics are for baseball and mathematicians as the next guy; however, Montreal’s numbers against the B’s are so overwhelming that one can’t help but notice. The 2007-2008 season series was a rout for Montreal. Any time one team goes 8-0 against another in the regular season, it’s not a fluke or an accident. That team is simply better. If you look back in playoff history, teams with experience and leadership tend to go far, while teams that lack it do not. This is another reason why Boston comes up short. Boston is a young team with little playoff experience. In fact, two of their most important players – Marc Savard and goalie Tim Thomas – come into these playoffs with 0 post-season appearances between them.
It is at this point that the astute among you will point out, “Carey Price has even less experience than Tim Thomas.” This is true. But it is also where Destiny comes in. Carey Price is the most highly touted Canadiens goalies in the past 20 years. Since Patrick Roy came to town, no goaltending prospect has received as much hype in Montreal. And I will ask those of you who are older than myself to answer this question: what happened in Patrick Roy’s rookie season? (Seriously, I don’t know. I was 2.) No, he didn’t win the Calder Trophy (like Carey Price is going to). He just won the Stanley Cup. And the Conn Smythe Trophy.
The skeptic will say: OK, big deal. He’s a Hall of Famer who has hearing problems based on where he keeps his Stanley Cup rings.
Then I would tell you about Ken Dryden. He was a university goalie for Cornell before literacy was en vogue for hockey players. He was called up to the Habs with 6 games remaining in the regular season and went 6-0. They faced a rag-tag bunch of chumps called the Bruins. They had nobody of note on their team (Bobby Orr, Phil Esposito, Wayne Cashman, Johnny Bucyk). They barely scraped their way into the playoffs (league records for most goals by a team (399), most wins in the regular season (57) and most points with 121). Needless to say, they upset the Bruins in 7, won the Stanley Cup and Ken Dryden won the Conn Smythe Trophy.
As for Price himself, he won the Calder Cup as a 19-year old rookie in the AHL last season. He is unflappable and he will not be rattled, nor will he miss a step in these playoffs. It will help him that he will be eased into the post-season with a safe matchup against the Bruins.
Bottom line: Habs take this one in 4.
(2) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (7) Ottawa Senators –
Unlike everybody else in the entire civilized world, I am not completely sold on the Crosby-Malkin led juggernaut that is the 2007-08 Pittsburgh Penguins. However, I am even less sold on the flop that is the 2007-08 Ottawa Senators.
Let’s discuss the Penguins’ before I point out Ottawa’s issues* (*note: I will need to devote an entire article to that topic). Sure, there is a lot to love about 20-year old phenom Sidney Crosby and his compatriots. Crosby is ultra-competitive and he has the skills to back up his work ethic. Malkin has used Crosby’s absence to prove that he is more than simply a 2nd fiddle and can be a star in his own right. One can never underestimate playoff war-horse Gary Roberts. With the Cup on the line, nobody has less regard for their own physical safety than Roberts. He is grit personified.
On the other hand, I would like to see more grit out of Crosby and was unimpressed by their flat effort in their last regular season game against the Flyers. Hockey karma will catch up to them - but not just yet.
They face the lowly Senators who required 44 games to get their last 15 wins of the season. For a comparison, they started off the season red-hot and won 15 of their first 17. Captain Daniel Alfredsson will probably be gone for the entire series, courtesy of Toronto’s Mark Bell, as will Mike Fisher. That leaves journeyman Martin Lapointe to fill in on the top line. Ottawa limped out of the regular season and they will limp out of this series.
Bottom line: The punch-drunk Sens will buckle at the first sign of adversity. Penguins in 6.
(3) Washington Capitals vs. (6) Philadelphia Flyers –
If you were painting a portrait of early April’s landscape from October’s point of view, there would be no Capitals or Flyers in the scene. Both have rebounded from tough years admirably and find themselves on the inside looking out. These teams are the two most improved in the league this year, with the Flyers improving on their 56 point performance, as they finished with 95 points – a 30 point improvement. The Capitals improved on their last year’s finish by 24 points.
As recently as American Thanksgiving (November 23, for us Canadians), the Caps were in last place in the NHL; however, nobody in the Eastern Conference is currently as hot, as they won 11 of 12 entering the playoffs. They have already proven that they can win when they need to, as they ousted Carolina from the Southeast Division lead in the last game of the season to clinch their playoff berth.
However, 15 Capitals who will see action this series have never played a game in the playoffs. Compare this with 9 unseasoned Flyers and we have a extremely young series. Historical precedents have no play in this series, as the last time they met in the playoffs, Ron Hextall scored for the Flyers (1989). Goaltending seems comparable, as the Capitals have Cristobal Huet and the Flyers will rely on Martin Biron. There is one X Factor in this series.
His name is Alexander Ovechkin. There is only 1 team in the league that would have an answer for Ovechkin and his crew of Russian All-Stars. And that team is not the Flyers. Along with Sergei Federov, Alexander Semin and Nickolas Backstrom (Swedish), the Capitals have the goal-scoring prowess to blow the doors of this series open. Philadelphia is tougher, but Ovechkin has never shied away from a physical style of play.
Bottom line: Barring more Philadelphia goonery, Washington takes this series in 7.
(4) New Jersey Devils vs. (5) New York Rangers
This series is going to be a good one. They are very evenly matched and their season came down to the last game against each other. The bad blood spilled over in a spirited affair that included Jaromir Jagr mugging several Devils. Both have veteran leadership, both are playoff tested and both have fantastic goaltending. The Devils have had more playoff success recently than the Rangers; however, these Rangers have been a major disappointment since GM Glen Sather put the finishing touches on the team’s current edition with the addition of Scott Gomez and Chris Drury. Drury has, as we have all heard numerous times, is a winner at every level: from the 1989 Little League World Series all the way to the 2001 Stanley Cup with the Colorado Avalanche. And you can never underestimate Jaromir Jagr deciding to be the best Jagr he can be, with a newly revised workout schedule in preparation for the playoffs. He is aging and realizes it. This team has the right mix of young talent and veteran leadership to do something special in 2008.
This year represents a passing of the guard from the perennial dominance of the Martin Brodeur-led Devils to the Atlantic Division’s future of Henrik Lundqvist.
Bottom line: Rangers win in 6.
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