So, here we are, two games deep in the Stanley Cup Finals. The Pittsburgh Penguins have yet to score. Yes, the team that is allegedly the same group who has been compared to the Edmonton Oilers of the 1980's, has not yet scored a goal in the Stanley Cup Finals. It is unfortunate for Crosby & Co. that they seem to be more like the 1983 Oilers, Gretz & Mess' 1st Stanley Cup Finals, when they were swept by the New York Islanders.
These teams cannot be better matched. A quick look at the teams and the Match-up:
Finesse: Both teams are supremely talented. Between Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsuyk, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, if I wanted to start a franchise, I would take the duo of Crosby and Malkin; however, if I were in the business of winning a Stanley Cup Finals series, I would probably take Zetterberg and Datsuyk as their playoff experience is priceless. Having been around for several years longer than their young foes is invaluable and will give them a slight advantage. Age and experience is the only significant difference between the two tandems, and since the older couple are not yet Chris Chelios-old, their background gives them the advantage.
Edge, Red Wings.
Goaltending: Both starting goalies have had question marks placed next to their names when it comes to performing in the clutch. Both starting goalies have quieted their critics this post-season. At the beginning of this series, Osgood and Fleury were the only two goalies in the playoffs who have a Goals-Against Average of below 2.00, weighing in at 1.60 and 1.70, respectively. Marc-Andre Fleury is a young talent, like everybody else on his team; and like everybody else on the Red Wings, Osgood is older and rife with experience. He has already backstopped the Red Wings to one Stanley Cup and was on the bench for another. He is a journeyman who played in the AHL as recently as 2005, after being placed on waivers, traded to several teams and finally signed back by Detroit on a 1-year, $900,000 contract. He has been through the ringer and you can bet he will be ready for this opportunity. Like Zetterberg and Datsuyk, Osgood has tremendous experience and a history of showing mental-toughness when it is most needed; however, he is not old enough to be falling into disrepair, like Dominik Hasek.
Edge, Red Wings.
Grit: In a fairly evenly matched series, this is the first category where there is a noticeable difference. As I pointed out in the past, Gary Roberts is grit personified; however, Roberts is 42-years old and has not played much this post-season.
In the other corner is a team who will not be intimidated by tough play or Avery-like antics. Starting at the top of the list (if you're going by age) is Chris Chelios, who is one of the toughest players in the last 20 years. He is dirty and plays with a chip on his shoulder. Then there is Niklas Kronwall. He has emerged as a big-game player this season and has made some game-altering hits. He will continue to be an impact player. Pittsburgh is not a team that will be easy to push around; however, the Red Wings will try to do just that. If you run down the list of players on the Wings, they are simply built hardier and are tougher than the majority of the Pens. This list includes: Dan Cleary, Kris Draper, Chelios, Nicklas Lidstrom, Kirk Maltby, Tomas Holmstrom, and Darren McCarty.
Edge, Red Wings.
Defense: This requires less explanation. Nicklas Lidstrom - 5 Norris Trophies. Chris Chelios - 3 Norris Trophies. Kris Draper - 1 Selke Trophy (best defensive forward). Niklas Kronwall - 12 assists and many bone-jarring hits.
I do not need to add much more. Pittsburgh is inherently an offensive team who tends to play a run-and-gun style in order to outscore their opponents. They will not be able to do that with such an experienced defensive core. They will need to rely on puck-control, rather than nifty dangles to beat the Red Wings. While Pittsburgh isn't a bad defensive team, they do not have the pedigree that the Red Wings do.
Edge, Red Wings.
All of that being said, I would be shocked if this series does not go to 6 or 7 games.
In this year's edition, both teams skated through the first 3 series, losing a combined 6 games. There are a couple other reasons why The Finals have featured the surprising scoring-drought of the Pittsburgh Penguins.
1. Chris Osgood - Nobody has talked much about it, but this is the end-point of another Darren McCarty-esque return to glory. He has had extreme highs and lows in his career, but here he is, back in net for The Big Dance. After out-playing a red-hot Marty Turco in the Western Conference Semifinals, Osgood is putting on another show in the first couple games. As he continues to nurse the 3rd longest Stanley Cup Finals shut-out streak ever, the Red Wings have a lot of confidence in their goaltending and their defensive abilities. This will empower their offense to take greater risks in an effort to add to their already daunting lead.
2. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin - Both of these stars are responsible for the success of the Penguins in this offseason. They scored timely goals and stepped up when it was needed. It's safe to say that Game 3 will be the most important game of their young careers. For a team that was averaging 3.6 goals-per-game entering the Stanley Cup Finals, being shut-out in 2 straight games is almost unprecedented. These teams have the run of the ice when they have the power-play and they really need to get Pittsburgh's powerplay on the scoreboard in Game 3 if they have any chance of winning this series. Once they see a scuff in the armour, they may go into feeding-frenzy mode that they displayed against the Flyers in the last game of that series.
3. Home Ice Advantage - The advantage that a team has in its own building is immense, especially when their opponent is a young and nervous team in their first Stanley Cup Finals. Going into the white-out of Mellon Arena on Wednesday should soothe their nerves and they will be able to play the entertaining style of hockey that got them this far. Only once has a team not won the Stanley Cup after winning jumping out to a 2-0 lead, but if there ever was a team that can make history, it is these Pittsburgh Penguins. The Pens need to jump out to a fast lead at home, as Detroit is 11-1 when they score first while Pittsburgh is 10-0.
After 2 games, Detroit clearly has an overwhelming advantage, but the Penguins are the only team who is capable of mounting a comeback in the face of such daunting odds.
Edge, Red Wings. They win their 11th Stanley Cup in 6 games.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Thursday, May 8, 2008
Western Conference Finals.
Working on a story for the newspaper. I'll get back to you.
Bottom Line: Red Wings in 7.
Bottom Line: Red Wings in 7.
Monday, May 5, 2008
Pennsylvania, Puberty, and PLAYOFFS!
In the Conference Semifinals, I went 2/4. Not the best, but if you’re in a Canadian public school, it’s still a passing mark. I’ll take a D-. Because it won’t happen again. I promise, Mom. HOWEVER, if you take my prediction of the Audrina-Lauren Conrad/Lo fallout into account, it bumps me up to 60%. Because the groundwork for that has taken place. Justin-Bobby has a haircut and the chickens are coming home to roost. I don't know what that means. Moving on...
I would also like to take this time to sit down with Sidney Crosby and have a chat. His nickname needs an upgrade in regards to some changes... that, er... have taken place of late:
Sid the Kid is not longer a kid. He's growing into a man. And when boys turn into men... their bodies begin to change. And when this change takes place, we need to do certain things to keep our bodies healthy and appealing. I know, Sid, this is uncomfortable for me too.
But one of these new things we need to do is shaving. Once our facial hair starts to grow, we need to take care of that so we don't look like we have a scraggly chocolate-milk mustache growing under our nose and on our necks. He has a terrible neckbeard (worse than my friend Byron's and that IS a statement). Perhaps Gillette and Sidney can come up with a promotion of 50% off Mach-12 razors for those who are just now going through puberty.
You agree? I'm sure glad we got that out of the way! I feel so much better, Sidney. So do your chances of, er, scoring.
ON TO THE PREDICTIONS!
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL –
(2) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (6) Philadelphia Flyers
The Battle of Pennsylvania. As much as I love historical hockey meetings, where a genuine dislike of the team on the opposite side of the ice boils just under the surface, the NHL needs to market its high-intensity meetings better. NCAA football has the Red River Shootout, The Civil War and the Iron Bowl. When compared to the pageantry and classic titles of those historic match-ups, the Battle of Alberta, the Battle of Ontario and the Battle of Pennsylvania seem wanting for effort. This will become more evident when we discuss the sun-baked hatred of the Battle of Florida and the players surf their way into the Battle of California in years to come.
Several short weeks ago, one wouldn’t expect much of this series; however, with the strength with which the Flyers played against the Canadiens, they have shown that they are capable of not only building a lead, but they show the killer-instinct to deal the fatal blow to a team’s Stanley Cup hopes. Montreal, on the other hand, could not do this against Boston as that series dragged to 7 games. Philadelphia’s success in this series depends largely on one man. If Martin Biron plays against Pittsburgh the way he did against Montreal, the Flyers will have a chance of winning this series. He has a .914 save percentage through 12 games in these playoffs and will need to continue at that level against a significantly more potent Penguins offense. In comparison, Marc-Andre Fleury boasts a .938 save percentage, but his Penguins faced a Senators crew who had no will to live and an inconsistent Rangers team.
The Penguins, much like the Canadiens and the Capitals, are a skill-based team whose playoff success depends largely on their ability to score goals. Unlike these teams, they have more significant scoring threats whom the Flyers will have to guard closely. Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby have demonstrated their ability to overcome playoff adversity with unanticipated maturity. They have, at times, shown their youth such as when they both lost their heads against the Rangers and wound up in the penalty box together – which may never happen again. But overall, they kept it together when the Penguins were down by large margins – when they were down 3-0 in Game 1, Crosby had 2 assists and Malkin scored 1 goal and 1 assist. These are the necessary contributions from a team’s most talented players when they are facing serious adversity. These contributions are the hallmarks of leadership.
The Flyers have had contributions from some unlikely candidates this spring. RJ Umberger has turned into a juggernaut who was a large contributing factor to the demise of the Habs. He scored 8 goals in 5 games against them, after scoring 13 goals in 74 games this season. The only possible explanation for his emergence is that in the playoffs, grit accounts for so much more than it does in the regular season. Often, the only way to score goals after April is by going to the net hard and taking your lumps – something that Umberger does better than the average bear. He will continue to be a factor in this series, along with the Usual Suspects of Danny Briere, Mike Richards, Jeff Carter and Joffrey Lupul. Philadelphia NEEDS their secondary players to keep scoring in order for them to stay in this series. If the scoring is left to Briere and Richards, the Flyers won't last long against the high-flying Penguins.
One thing Philadelphia needs to be aware of is the Pens' ability to blow a team out. If they continue to take penalties the way they did in the first two rounds, this will be a very short series. Pittsburgh has firepower that rarely find its way into the same Division, let alone the same team. The Flyers were the most suspended team in hockey during the regular season, and are the most penalized team in the playoffs. This might get some players looking over their shoulders, while others will be licking their chops. If they allow Crosby and Malkin to frequently have a man advantage, Biron will not likely be speaking to his teammates, as his save percentage will drop faster than booty in a Lil' John video.
The Penguins’ mental health will be a factor in this series as well. They have had it easy compared to the physical play that the Flyers are going to bring their way. If Pittsburgh lets it get to them – and we saw the Rangers get in the heads of Crosby and Malkin, especially in the game New York won – it could be their own downfall. They need to expect the Flyers to be a nasty, dirty, unpleasant team to play against if they are going to make it to The Finals. On the other hand, if the Flyers' grit leads them into penalty trouble, this could be an extremely short series because Pittsburgh will bury Philly if they get many multiple chances on the PP every game.
Bottom Line: When I see this Flyers team, I think of a rat. And not in the way that they have rabies and eat dog-poo. They find a way to survive and keep surviving against all odds. They are tough and have made the most of what their team can do. But Pittsburgh’s skill will be too much for Philadelphia to handle. The Penguins will be the last team standing in the Battle of Pennsylvania.
Pittsburgh in 6.
I would also like to take this time to sit down with Sidney Crosby and have a chat. His nickname needs an upgrade in regards to some changes... that, er... have taken place of late:
Sid the Kid is not longer a kid. He's growing into a man. And when boys turn into men... their bodies begin to change. And when this change takes place, we need to do certain things to keep our bodies healthy and appealing. I know, Sid, this is uncomfortable for me too.
But one of these new things we need to do is shaving. Once our facial hair starts to grow, we need to take care of that so we don't look like we have a scraggly chocolate-milk mustache growing under our nose and on our necks. He has a terrible neckbeard (worse than my friend Byron's and that IS a statement). Perhaps Gillette and Sidney can come up with a promotion of 50% off Mach-12 razors for those who are just now going through puberty.
You agree? I'm sure glad we got that out of the way! I feel so much better, Sidney. So do your chances of, er, scoring.
ON TO THE PREDICTIONS!
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL –
(2) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (6) Philadelphia Flyers
The Battle of Pennsylvania. As much as I love historical hockey meetings, where a genuine dislike of the team on the opposite side of the ice boils just under the surface, the NHL needs to market its high-intensity meetings better. NCAA football has the Red River Shootout, The Civil War and the Iron Bowl. When compared to the pageantry and classic titles of those historic match-ups, the Battle of Alberta, the Battle of Ontario and the Battle of Pennsylvania seem wanting for effort. This will become more evident when we discuss the sun-baked hatred of the Battle of Florida and the players surf their way into the Battle of California in years to come.
Several short weeks ago, one wouldn’t expect much of this series; however, with the strength with which the Flyers played against the Canadiens, they have shown that they are capable of not only building a lead, but they show the killer-instinct to deal the fatal blow to a team’s Stanley Cup hopes. Montreal, on the other hand, could not do this against Boston as that series dragged to 7 games. Philadelphia’s success in this series depends largely on one man. If Martin Biron plays against Pittsburgh the way he did against Montreal, the Flyers will have a chance of winning this series. He has a .914 save percentage through 12 games in these playoffs and will need to continue at that level against a significantly more potent Penguins offense. In comparison, Marc-Andre Fleury boasts a .938 save percentage, but his Penguins faced a Senators crew who had no will to live and an inconsistent Rangers team.
The Penguins, much like the Canadiens and the Capitals, are a skill-based team whose playoff success depends largely on their ability to score goals. Unlike these teams, they have more significant scoring threats whom the Flyers will have to guard closely. Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby have demonstrated their ability to overcome playoff adversity with unanticipated maturity. They have, at times, shown their youth such as when they both lost their heads against the Rangers and wound up in the penalty box together – which may never happen again. But overall, they kept it together when the Penguins were down by large margins – when they were down 3-0 in Game 1, Crosby had 2 assists and Malkin scored 1 goal and 1 assist. These are the necessary contributions from a team’s most talented players when they are facing serious adversity. These contributions are the hallmarks of leadership.
The Flyers have had contributions from some unlikely candidates this spring. RJ Umberger has turned into a juggernaut who was a large contributing factor to the demise of the Habs. He scored 8 goals in 5 games against them, after scoring 13 goals in 74 games this season. The only possible explanation for his emergence is that in the playoffs, grit accounts for so much more than it does in the regular season. Often, the only way to score goals after April is by going to the net hard and taking your lumps – something that Umberger does better than the average bear. He will continue to be a factor in this series, along with the Usual Suspects of Danny Briere, Mike Richards, Jeff Carter and Joffrey Lupul. Philadelphia NEEDS their secondary players to keep scoring in order for them to stay in this series. If the scoring is left to Briere and Richards, the Flyers won't last long against the high-flying Penguins.
One thing Philadelphia needs to be aware of is the Pens' ability to blow a team out. If they continue to take penalties the way they did in the first two rounds, this will be a very short series. Pittsburgh has firepower that rarely find its way into the same Division, let alone the same team. The Flyers were the most suspended team in hockey during the regular season, and are the most penalized team in the playoffs. This might get some players looking over their shoulders, while others will be licking their chops. If they allow Crosby and Malkin to frequently have a man advantage, Biron will not likely be speaking to his teammates, as his save percentage will drop faster than booty in a Lil' John video.
The Penguins’ mental health will be a factor in this series as well. They have had it easy compared to the physical play that the Flyers are going to bring their way. If Pittsburgh lets it get to them – and we saw the Rangers get in the heads of Crosby and Malkin, especially in the game New York won – it could be their own downfall. They need to expect the Flyers to be a nasty, dirty, unpleasant team to play against if they are going to make it to The Finals. On the other hand, if the Flyers' grit leads them into penalty trouble, this could be an extremely short series because Pittsburgh will bury Philly if they get many multiple chances on the PP every game.
Bottom Line: When I see this Flyers team, I think of a rat. And not in the way that they have rabies and eat dog-poo. They find a way to survive and keep surviving against all odds. They are tough and have made the most of what their team can do. But Pittsburgh’s skill will be too much for Philadelphia to handle. The Penguins will be the last team standing in the Battle of Pennsylvania.
Pittsburgh in 6.
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