2008 Stanley Cup Playoff Preview

The Promised Land Preview, 2008:

Sixteen teams had some good things going for them this season. Fourteen teams were less organized and could not put together a strong enough campaign to last this long. However, in the playoffs, all is not as it appears. Some teams barely survived the regular season, only to find themselves in even bigger trouble. These teams will find themselves on the golf course faster than John Daly after a plate of Hooters wings and 3 pitchers of beer.

Other teams are built for speed and have hit the playoffs with an admirable stride. And if there is one thing that we can learn from the 2003-2008 Detroit Red Wings – the winner of the President’s Trophy is not necessarily the best playoff team.

I don’t know about you, but the anticipation is killing me. So let’s get to it.

Eastern Conference:

(1) Montreal Canadiens vs. (8) Boston Bruins –

I’m not going to beat around the bush on this one. The reasons that the Canadiens are going to sweep the Bruins in this series are twofold: numbers and Destiny. Yes. Destiny. With a capital ‘D’.

I’m as big a believer that statistics are for baseball and mathematicians as the next guy; however, Montreal’s numbers against the B’s are so overwhelming that one can’t help but notice. The 2007-2008 season series was a rout for Montreal. Any time one team goes 8-0 against another in the regular season, it’s not a fluke or an accident. That team is simply better. If you look back in playoff history, teams with experience and leadership tend to go far, while teams that lack it do not. This is another reason why Boston comes up short. Boston is a young team with little playoff experience. In fact, two of their most important players – Marc Savard and goalie Tim Thomas – come into these playoffs with 0 post-season appearances between them.

It is at this point that the astute among you will point out, “Carey Price has even less experience than Tim Thomas.” This is true. But it is also where Destiny comes in. Carey Price is the most highly touted Canadiens goalies in the past 20 years. Since Patrick Roy came to town, no goaltending prospect has received as much hype in Montreal. And I will ask those of you who are older than myself to answer this question: what happened in Patrick Roy’s rookie season? (Seriously, I don’t know. I was 2.) No, he didn’t win the Calder Trophy (like Carey Price is going to). He just won the Stanley Cup. And the Conn Smythe Trophy.

The skeptic will say: OK, big deal. He’s a Hall of Famer who has hearing problems based on where he keeps his Stanley Cup rings.

Then I would tell you about Ken Dryden. He was a university goalie for Cornell before literacy was en vogue for hockey players. He was called up to the Habs with 6 games remaining in the regular season and went 6-0. They faced a rag-tag bunch of chumps called the Bruins. They had nobody of note on their team (Bobby Orr, Phil Esposito, Wayne Cashman, Johnny Bucyk). They barely scraped their way into the playoffs (league records for most goals by a team (399), most wins in the regular season (57) and most points with 121). Needless to say, they upset the Bruins in 7, won the Stanley Cup and Ken Dryden won the Conn Smythe Trophy.

As for Price himself, he won the Calder Cup as a 19-year old rookie in the AHL last season. He is unflappable and he will not be rattled, nor will he miss a step in these playoffs. It will help him that he will be eased into the post-season with a safe matchup against the Bruins.

Bottom line: Habs take this one in 4.

(2) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (7) Ottawa Senators –

Unlike everybody else in the entire civilized world, I am not completely sold on the Crosby-Malkin led juggernaut that is the 2007-08 Pittsburgh Penguins. However, I am even less sold on the flop that is the 2007-08 Ottawa Senators.

Let’s discuss the Penguins’ before I point out Ottawa’s issues* (*note: I will need to devote an entire article to that topic). Sure, there is a lot to love about 20-year old phenom Sidney Crosby and his compatriots. Crosby is ultra-competitive and he has the skills to back up his work ethic. Malkin has used Crosby’s absence to prove that he is more than simply a 2nd fiddle and can be a star in his own right. One can never underestimate playoff war-horse Gary Roberts. With the Cup on the line, nobody has less regard for their own physical safety than Roberts. He is grit personified.

On the other hand, I would like to see more grit out of Crosby and was unimpressed by their flat effort in their last regular season game against the Flyers. Hockey karma will catch up to them - but not just yet.

They face the lowly Senators who required 44 games to get their last 15 wins of the season. For a comparison, they started off the season red-hot and won 15 of their first 17. Captain Daniel Alfredsson will probably be gone for the entire series, courtesy of Toronto’s Mark Bell, as will Mike Fisher. That leaves journeyman Martin Lapointe to fill in on the top line. Ottawa limped out of the regular season and they will limp out of this series.

Bottom line: The punch-drunk Sens will buckle at the first sign of adversity. Penguins in 6.

(3) Washington Capitals vs. (6) Philadelphia Flyers –

If you were painting a portrait of early April’s landscape from October’s point of view, there would be no Capitals or Flyers in the scene. Both have rebounded from tough years admirably and find themselves on the inside looking out. These teams are the two most improved in the league this year, with the Flyers improving on their 56 point performance, as they finished with 95 points – a 30 point improvement. The Capitals improved on their last year’s finish by 24 points.

As recently as American Thanksgiving (November 23, for us Canadians), the Caps were in last place in the NHL; however, nobody in the Eastern Conference is currently as hot, as they won 11 of 12 entering the playoffs. They have already proven that they can win when they need to, as they ousted Carolina from the Southeast Division lead in the last game of the season to clinch their playoff berth.

However, 15 Capitals who will see action this series have never played a game in the playoffs. Compare this with 9 unseasoned Flyers and we have a extremely young series. Historical precedents have no play in this series, as the last time they met in the playoffs, Ron Hextall scored for the Flyers (1989). Goaltending seems comparable, as the Capitals have Cristobal Huet and the Flyers will rely on Martin Biron. There is one X Factor in this series.

His name is Alexander Ovechkin. There is only 1 team in the league that would have an answer for Ovechkin and his crew of Russian All-Stars. And that team is not the Flyers. Along with Sergei Federov, Alexander Semin and Nickolas Backstrom (Swedish), the Capitals have the goal-scoring prowess to blow the doors of this series open. Philadelphia is tougher, but Ovechkin has never shied away from a physical style of play.

Bottom line: Barring more Philadelphia goonery, Washington takes this series in 7.

(4) New Jersey Devils vs. (5) New York Rangers

This series is going to be a good one. They are very evenly matched and their season came down to the last game against each other. The bad blood spilled over in a spirited affair that included Jaromir Jagr mugging several Devils. Both have veteran leadership, both are playoff tested and both have fantastic goaltending. The Devils have had more playoff success recently than the Rangers; however, these Rangers have been a major disappointment since GM Glen Sather put the finishing touches on the team’s current edition with the addition of Scott Gomez and Chris Drury. Drury has, as we have all heard numerous times, is a winner at every level: from the 1989 Little League World Series all the way to the 2001 Stanley Cup with the Colorado Avalanche. And you can never underestimate Jaromir Jagr deciding to be the best Jagr he can be, with a newly revised workout schedule in preparation for the playoffs. He is aging and realizes it. This team has the right mix of young talent and veteran leadership to do something special in 2008.

This year represents a passing of the guard from the perennial dominance of the Martin Brodeur-led Devils to the Atlantic Division’s future of Henrik Lundqvist.

Bottom line: Rangers win in 6.