Round 2, Baby!

The Promised Land Preview:

So, to clarify why I only picked the Eastern conference in the 1st round is because I had a deadline and couldn't get the blog up in time before the games started. Instead of knowing what happened in Game 1, which would sway my picks even if I didn't intend them to, I just decided to hold off until round 2. So, I did pretty well, going 3/4 and picking the Rangers in the correct number of games. Not bad for a first timer!

Here comes the Second Round. We’ve got some good stuff for you. Let’s do it.

Unrelated to anything: I don't know if any of you watch The Hills. Probably not. At any rate, I do. And I was enjoying The Hills last week and noticed Spencer’s awesome playoff beard. Later that evening, I saw Spencer skating down the ice but he was wearing a Phil Kessel jersey. As it turns out, Spence wasn’t a late-season addition to the Bruins, but it was, in fact, Phil Kessel.

While I'm predicting things, I'll predict that Audrina doesn't move in with LC and Lo, being alienated by their obnoxious friendship and evident hatred for Justin Bobby. Even if she does initially move into their house, it won't last. You heard it here first!

Eastern Conference Semifinals –

(1) Montreal Canadiens vs. (6) Philadelphia Flyers

Montreal had a much tougher fight on their hands in the first round than anybody expected, including the Boston Bruins. Their lack of killer instinct will be corrected in the second round, so if they jump to a quick lead, they will be able to finish what they have started.

This series is a special-teams matchup, as it features the top two regular-season powerplays (Canadiens – 24.2%; Flyers – 21.8%); however, Montreal’s powerplay dried up (9%) in parts of their first series against the Bruins. The opposite happened with the Flyers, as Daniel Briere led the team with 6 goals and 5 assists, with much of his success coming on the P.P. against the Capitals. On the other hand, in the absence of their powerplay, Les Habitants tightened up their defensive zone coverage and killed 90% of their penalties.

As Jeff Carter has pointed out, Montreal and Washington are similar teams, with a lot of European players relying on skill and puck possession to give them an advantage. However, one main difference between the Habs and the Capitals are that Montreal plays much better as a team and has more veteran leadership. Not to mention that Washington’s starting goalie is the same man that Montreal decided was going to take a backseat role to the Goalie of the Future, Carey Price.

If this series becomes an offensive battle, much like the last series that the Flyers survived, Montreal will have an advantage because they are capable of shutting the door defensively and stifling their opponents’ offenses. Not to mention that while Cristobal Huet is a Hasek-style reaction goalie, Price is very cool under pressure and to make many of his best saves, he is positioned perfectly to be waiting for the puck by the time it gets to him. As he did struggle at times in the first round, the Canadiens will need their veterans to step up, as Saku Koivu and Alex Kovalev both did against the Bruins. Like Price, Martin Biron looked very strong at times, while letting some weak goals past him. Unlike Price, Biron did not show the ability to take control and steal a game for his team.



Bottom Line: While both demonstrated an ability to put the puck in the net in the Quarter-Finals, only one of these teams was capable of shutting down an offense. Montreal’s defense and penalty kill will be the deal breaker in this series, and the Habs will squander fewer chances against the most penalized team in the playoffs (35 penalties). Montreal sneaks out the back door en route to their 1st conference finals since 1993.

Canadiens in 6.

(2) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) New York Rangers

I can’t wait for this series. Somehow, Pittsburgh is going to have to address Super Pest Sean Avery who single-handedly distracted future Hall of Famer Martin Brodeur from his job of stopping pucks and forced him to focus on ways to kill Avery. It was like watching the Coyote and the Roadrunner, with Avery inventing new and creative ways to get an unfair advantage that aren’t technically outside the rules. The Penguins are going to have to out-pest The Pest this series. Jarkko Ruutu will be used as a tool to try to distract Avery – Ruutu will have extra assistance from Georges Laraque and Gary Roberts in deterring Avery from taking runs at more talented players. If those three can engage Avery and bother him enough to prevent him from getting to Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, this series will take a turn other than the one I’m anticipating.

Crosby and Malkin have the first real playoff test of their careers. I generally give players an exemption from blame the first time they experience post-season hockey, because it is such a different game than the regular season. That was last year. This year, The Young Guns went untested against the predictably weak Ottawa Senators. The fact that they simply did not need to try in the first round will work against them. The extra week may work against them, as they comfortably awaited their opponents, while the Rangers duked it out another couple games. The Penguins are going to run into a bit of a wall in the first two games against the Rangers, who survived a war against the Devils. As usual, expect big things from Gary Roberts. One can never underestimate Pittsburgh’s pure talent, but this is the playoffs. It’s where talent needs to meet grit to win a championship.

The Rangers won this season series 5-3, Henrik Lundqvist is playing well and the Rangers are flying. Jaromir Jagr, Scott Gomez and Chris Drury are going to keep rolling. Also, the Rangers know how to win. They have 6.5 Stanley Cups among them (Jason Strudwick is a cousin of Scott and Rob Neidermayer, so that association gives him at least a half-Stanley Cup), compared to Pittsburgh’s 3 (Gary Roberts – 1 – and Darryl Sydor – 2 – are the only two who have tasted victory from Stanley’s Mug). Pittsburgh is going to win one (two, three or four) in the upcoming seasons (read: starting next year), but they might be too green to get there this season.

Bottom Line: Remember that Karma I was talking about last round? It’s going to bite the Penguins here, who took the easy way out in the 1st round, but will be unprepared because of it. Also, Avery isn’t going anywhere. Crosby has a habit of letting players get under his skin, and few people are as obnoxious as Avery.

Rangers in 6.

Western Conference Semifinals –

(1) Detroit Red Wings vs. (6) Colorado Avalanche

These are two perennial Western Conferences powerhouse in a classic match-up. They know each other very well and there is not much love between them. At first glance, they are similarly built teams with longstanding histories of success. Both have prominent veterans (Colorado – Joe Sakic, Adam Foote, Peter Forsberg; Detroit – Chris Chelios, Nicklas Lidstrom, Tomas Holmstrom) who have all won Stanley Cups. Both feature prominent young offensive talents; however this is where Detroit has the edge. Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsuyk are two of the best finesse players in the league who have silky hands and have hit their playoff pace after having trouble getting started early in their careers. Paul Stastny is in the midst of his own playoff-scoring slump and he needs to figure this out. If he doesn’t get his offensive output started, this is going to be a short series, as Colorado needs his added firepower to keep up with Detroit.

Colorado has the advantage in net, as Jose Theodore has returned to his 2001-02 form when he won the Vezina and Hart Trophies. Theodore shut down the Wild in the Quarter-Finals, and he did not waver. Detroit has long-standing goaltending issues, as they insist on pursuing the Stanley Cup with goaltending that is often the weakest part of their formidable teams. Dominik Hasek looked very weak for the entire First Round and he should back-up Osgood this series, who was much better than Hasek. However, both are a step down from Theodore.

As I have pointed out before, grit mixed with talent is the key to the playoffs. And Ryan Smyth is the right amount of that combination. However, the Avs are older and slightly less talented than the Red Wings. When you consider that Sakic missed 38 games this season, Ryan Smyth missed 27, Adam Foote missed 70, and Peter Forsberg only played in 9 games, you have to be concerned about their aging core’s health in a long and physical series.

Bottom Line: Despite the Avalanche’s strong defense and goaltending, they just don’t have the fire-power to keep up with the Red Wings. Lidstrom and Chelios should be deterrent enough to slow down Colorado’s occasionally fiery offense.

Red Wings in 6.

(2) San Jose Sharks vs. (5) Dallas Stars

This series comes down to match-ups and depth. The winner of this series is going to be the eventual Western Conference representative in the finals. So, let’s just jump right in! The water is great. There aren’t any sharks in it. I promise.

The Sharks did well by dispatching Jarome Iginla in the 1st round, as that is never an easy task. Yes, I’m aware he has 19 other guys who infrequently show up on the ice along with him, but none that were worth mentioning. Joe Thornton proved that he does have a pulse in April and that he is aware there are more than 82 games to be played in the year. He played very well, getting 7 points (2 goals, 5 assists) in 6 games; however, he did disappear for periods at a time and occasionally reminded the Bruins why they sent him to the West Coast in exchange for Marco Sturm (there were two other guys involved, but neither of them play for the Bruins anymore). He received help from Ryane Clowe (yes I spelled that right… I don’t know… ask his parents) who leads the team with 8 points and Patrick Marleau turned out some impressive performances. It took a few guys stepping up to beat the Flames. It’s going to take a heck of a lot more to beat the Stars.

Unlike San Jose, the Stars have players coming out of the woodwork for no apparent reason to lead the team to new heights. Stephane Robidas is a journeyman who jumped to life in the 1st round. He had 26 points in the regular season, but is averaging 1 point per game in the playoffs. Mike Ribeiro is following his break-out season by adding 8 points in 6 games – which is the same number of points he had in 24 playoff games prior to this season. Stu Barnes is playing like he’s Claude Lemieux. Then you get to Mike Modano and Brad Richards – Richards has a Conn Smythe trophy to add to his and Modano’s rings. Dallas seemed genuinely unconcerned about home ice advantage last round, winning the first two games in Anaheim. Throw the best goalie from the 1st round in net and you are sitting pretty.

Bottom Line: When you consider Thornton’s history of disappearing in the face of adversity and Brad Richards’ history of doing the exact opposite, smart money says Richards steps it up. Also, San Jose looked shaky the entire 1st round. They were inconsistent, while the Stars showed up each game and twice were beat by a good team.

Stars in 7.